Lecturas interesantes / Interesting readings

Spatial inequality and place mobility in Mexico: 2000–2015

• Author(s): Sergio J. Rey, Esau Casimiro Vieyra
• Title:Spatial inequality and place mobility in Mexico: 2000–2015,
• Jounal: Applied Geography, Volume 152, 2023
• Link 1 y Link 2
• Abstract: “In this paper we examine the relationship between spatial inequality, place mobility, and spatial polarization in Mexico. We use data for 2457 Mexican municipios from 2000 to 2015. We apply classical and spatial Markov chains to measure spatial income dynamics and we employ a decomposition of spatial inequality to measure spatial polarization. In doing so, we ask the following questions: Has spatial inequality increased across Mexican municipios since 2000? What has been the role of place mobility in any changes in overall spatial inequality? Finally, we examine what the main components of place mobility have been over this period. We find evidence of a strong spatial dependency between municipios that has increased over time but we find no clear pattern at the state scale. Intra-state municipal inequality has relatively declined while Inter-state municipal inequality polarization has increased. We also find clear evidence that transitional dynamics of municipio incomes are influenced by spatial context. Substantial evidence shows that municipio income mobility is driven by a growth component that could be likely reflecting the devaluation of the peso over this period. Exchange mobility is found to be a more important component of overall place mobility than dispersion (inequality) mobility.”

El efecto de la banda ancha en el crecimiento económico de América Latina: una aproximación basada en un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas

• Title: El efecto de la banda ancha en el crecimiento económico de América Latina: una aproximación basada en un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas
• Author(s): Alderete, María Verónica
• Jounal: Revista CEPAL, 138, 2023-01-24
• Link de descarga
• Abstract: “Este trabajo analiza los efectos de la banda ancha en el crecimiento económico en América Latina, distinguiendo banda ancha móvil y fija. Aunque existen estudios sobre los países de la Organización de Cooperación y Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE), en la región de América Latina son escasos. Se utilizan datos de 20 países correspondientes al período 2010-2018. Se estima un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas basado en Koutroumpis (2009) y Katz y Callorda (2013). Los resultados muestran una contribución significativa y positiva de la banda ancha fija y móvil al crecimiento económico de la región. Un incremento en un 1% de la penetración de la banda ancha móvil genera un incremento del 0,23% en el PIB; mientras que un incremento del 1% de la banda ancha fija aumenta el PIB en un 0,31%. Este efecto es mayor que el hallado en otros análisis en que no se considera la complementariedad entre ambas bandas.”

How to Mitigate the Impact of Economic Downturns on Labor Markets: Evidence from Nicaragua

• Title: How to Mitigate the Impact of Economic Downturns on Labor Markets: Evidence from Nicaragua
• Author(s): Sandra Marcelino & Mariana Sans
• Jounal/Publication: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2023/023, February 3, 2023
• Link de descarga, Link 2
• Abstract: “This paper studies the drivers of the labor market performance in Nicaragua with a particular focus on informality, to identify vulnerable groups during economic downturns; and estimates the speed of adjustment of employment to shocks. The paper compares this experience with the ones in other CAPDR countries (Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama). Our findings are that while the high countercyclical informality in Nicaragua has been the active margin of adjustment during economic downturns mitigating unemployment, the trade-off has been a lower speed of adjustment to shocks hampering the country’s ability to revert to its potential. Policy recommendations relate to mitigating the impact of downturns on employment in Nicaragua, easing adjustments and inequalities in the labor market to hasten the employment recovery and thus, support growth.”

Growth with automation capital and declining population

• Title: Growth with automation capital and declining population
• Author(s): Hiroaki Sasaki
• Jounal/Publication: Economics Letters, Volume 222, January 2023
• Link, Link 2
• Abstract: “This study investigates how the long-run growth rate of per capita output is determined when automation capital is introduced in final goods production and when the population is declining. The results indicate that even though the population is declining, per capita output can continue to grow at a positive rate depending on condition. Specifically, when the absolute value of the rate of population decline is large, the long-run growth rate of per capita output is positive irrespective the size of the saving rate.”

The Holt–Winters filter and the one-sided HP filter: A close correspondence

• Title: The Holt–Winters filter and the one-sided HP filter: A close correspondence
• Author(s): Alfaro y Drehmann
• Jounal/Publication: Economics Letters, Volume 222, January 2023
• Link, Link 2
• Abstract: “We show that the trend of the one-sided HP filter can be asymptotically approximated by the Holt–Winters (HW) filter. The latter is an elegant, moving average representation and facilitates the computation of trends tremendously. We confirm the accuracy of this approximation empirically by comparing the one-sided HP filter with the HW filter for generating credit-to-GDP gaps. We find negligible differences, most of them concentrated at the beginning of the sample.”

Journal of Econometrics, Volume 232, Issue 1

• Jounal/Publication: Journal of Econometrics
• Link

Principal papers:

1. Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: A change-point perspective

2. Nowcasting the output gap

3. Nowcasting in a pandemic using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs

4. Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network

Long-run consequences of population decline in an economy with exhaustible resources

• Title: Long-run consequences of population decline in an economy with exhaustible resources
• Author(s): Kazuo Mino and Hiroaki Sasaki
• Jounal/Publication: Economic Modelling, Volume 121, April 2023
• Link
• Abstract: “This study explores how population decline affects the long-run performance of an economy in which exhaustible resources are indispensable for production. Using a one-sector neoclassical growth model with external increasing returns, we examine the conditions under which the expansion of per capita income and consumption can be sustained in the long-run equilibrium. We find that population decline, rather than exhaustible resources, can terminate the persistent growth in per capita income and consumption.”

Inflation and income inequality in a Schumpeterian economy with heterogeneous wealth and skills

• Title: Inflation and income inequality in a Schumpeterian economy with heterogeneous wealth and skills
• Author(s): Zhijie Zheng and Xi Wan and Chien-Yu Huang
• Jounal/Publication: Economic Modelling, Volume 121, April 2023
• Link
• Abstract: “We explore the effects of monetary policy on innovation and income inequality in a scale-invariant endogenous growth model with heterogeneous households and a cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on research and development investment. Household heterogeneity arises from unequal distributions of wealth and skill, giving rise to interest and labor income inequalities, respectively. We find that inflation unambiguously reduces innovation and economic growth, whereas its impact on income inequality can be positive, negative, or U-shaped. The relationship between inflation and income inequality depends on the relative dominance of wealth heterogeneity to skill heterogeneity and how the ratio of interest income to labor income responds to inflation. The model is calibrated to the US economy, and the numerical results support these implications on income inequality.”

Wages, hires, and labor market concentration

• Title: Wages, hires, and labor market concentration
• Author(s): Ioana Marinescu and Ivan Ouss and Louis-Daniel Pape
• Jounal/Publication: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 184, April 2021
• Link
• Abstract: “How does employer market power affect workers? We compute the concentration of new hires by occupation and commuting zone in France using linked employer-employee data. Using instrumental variables, we find that a 10% increase in labor market concentration decreases hires by 3.2% and their hourly wage by nearly 0.5%, as hypothesized by monopsony theory. Based on a simple merger simulation, we find that a merger between the top two employers in the retail industry would be most damaging, with about 30 million euros in annual loss to the wage bill of new hires, and a 3000 decrease in annual hires.”

Since here format changes to bib, due I think is more useful.

Update: “20 May 2023, 21:09”

@article{KHAN2023106306,
title = {Can FDI explain the growth disparity of the BRIC and the non-BRIC countries? Theoretical and empirical evidence from panel growth regressions},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
volume = {124},
pages = {106306},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106306},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001189},
author = {Seefat-E-Rabbi Khan and Dimitrios Asteriou and Claudia Jefferies},
keywords = {Growth disparities, BRICs, Foreign direct investments, Human capital formation},
abstract = {The aim of this paper is to explain the growth disparity between the four major emerging economies that are widely known with the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and the non-BRIC countries. There is ample evidence in the literature that FDI is growth enhancing, however there is little discussion whether FDI is the main driving factor of growth disparities between different countries. We utilise a balanced panel dataset for the BRICs and 50 other developing economies from 1980 to 2020. Our findings advocate that foreign direct investments, gross capital formation, human capital, and infrastructure are particularly important for economic growth. However, foreign direct investments, gross capital formation and human capital are observed to be more efficacious in BRICs. Also, the relative significance of foreign direct investments seems to be conditional on the presence of better-quality human capital and higher levels of domestic investments in BRICs, thus explaining the growth disparities.}
}

@article{SARGENT2023106196,
title = {The labor market impacts of Brexit: Migration and the European union},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
volume = {121},
pages = {106196},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106196},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323000081},
author = {Kristina Sargent},
keywords = {Brexit, European union, Migration, Unemployment, Wages, Search & matching},
abstract = {Given the uncertainty over the post-Brexit immigration system between the UK and EU, how are new migration regulations affecting labor markets? Existing studies indicate that the details of migration policies are pivotal in determining whether workers and aggregate labor market conditions are harmed by restrictions on cross-border movement. This paper builds a two-country model with costly, endogenous migration and frictional labor markets to better understand the effects of migration restrictions over the long-run. The importance of understanding these effects is highlighted by model predictions for heterogeneous impacts on labor market outcomes for workers based on their migration history. A Brexit calibration exercise shows that under model assumptions, increasing migration restrictions is associated with higher unemployment, lower wages, and welfare loss in aggregate, largely through lowering job surplus. Lower migration costs results in better outcomes for workers: keeping visa costs to a minimum is an important channel for maintaining mutually beneficial migration intact.}
}

@article{TAN2023106323,
title = {Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
volume = {124},
pages = {106323},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106323},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001359},
author = {Xilong Tan and Yubo Tao},
keywords = {Cryptocurrency, Return predictability, Technical analysis, Investment horizon, Machine learning, COVID-19},
abstract = {Cryptocurrencies are widely known for their limited publicly available information, making it challenging to predict market returns. Technical analysis has emerged as an essential tool in this context, but its effectiveness in the cryptocurrency market remains an open question. Using data from nearly 3,000 cryptocurrencies at daily, weekly, and monthly horizons from 2013 to 2022, we systematically re-examine the efficacy of trend-based technical indicators in predicting cryptocurrency market returns and find that price-based signals are more effective in predicting short-term horizons, while volume-based signals are more powerful in predicting long-term horizons. Further analysis shows that machine learning techniques can significantly improve the performance of technical indicators, and technical indicators based on different information respond differently to the COVID-19 outbreak. These results provide direct evidence that volume imparts information to technical analysis independently of price.}
}

@article{CZAPKIEWICZ2023106322,
title = {Idiosyncratic risk and cross-section of stock returns in emerging European markets},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
volume = {124},
pages = {106322},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106322},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001347},
author = {Anna Czapkiewicz and Tomasz Wójtowicz and Adam Zaremba},
keywords = {Idiosyncratic risk, Idiosyncratic momentum, Asset pricing model, Illiquidity},
abstract = {The nature and sources of the low-risk anomaly have been mainly studied in developed markets. Do they hold in emerging ones? Using data from 1999 to 2019, we examine the idiosyncratic risk puzzle in European emerging markets. We confirm that the idiosyncratic volatility negatively predicts returns in the cross-section. Nonetheless - unlike in developed markets - the pattern comes mainly from underpriced stocks. Moreover, it is augmented by high turnover and liquidity. Finally, the illiquidity-enhanced three-factor model fully explains the idiosyncratic risk anomaly. Our findings indicate that conclusions from developed markets do not directly apply to emerging markets.}
}

@article{BUCCI2023106309,
title = {The role of uncertainty in forecasting volatility comovements across stock markets},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
volume = {125},
pages = {106309},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106309},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001219},
author = {Andrea Bucci and Giulio Palomba and Eduardo Rossi},
keywords = {Forecasting realized covariances, Nonlinear models, Smooth transition, Uncertainty measures, Forecast accuracy},
abstract = {Earlier studies found that uncertainty is important in forecasting the financial market covolatilities. However, it is not clear how uncertainty affects the covariance matrix dynamics across different market and economic conditions. To fill this gap, we specify the dynamic relationship between stock market covolatilities and uncertainty in a nonlinear framework, and we analyze the relevance of uncertainty measures in anticipating the transition of conditional covariances between different regimes. Specifically, we propose alternative transformations of the realized covariance matrix which we model by means of the Vector Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (VLSTAR) model. Empirical results indicate that uncertainty measures used as transition variables help to detect covolatilities changes; moreover, the VLSTAR exhibits a significantly better forecast performance compared to alternative linear and multivariate GARCH models. Finally, our results show that the evidence on the role of macroeconomic and financial predictors is mixed, depending on the specification of the realized covariance dynamics.}
}

@article{BELLOCCHI2023106327,
title = {The labor share puzzle: Empirical evidence for European countries},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
volume = {124},
pages = {106327},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106327},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001396},
author = {Alessandro Bellocchi and Giovanni Marin and Giuseppe Travaglini},
keywords = {Labor share, Firm-level analysis, Capital-output ratios, Technological change, Markups},
abstract = {Changes in labor share are documented in the literature, but its micro-sources remain unclear. At the macro level, the labor share is related to the capital-output ratio. Firm level evidence is scarce although very informative. In this paper we use microdata from European firms to study changes in labor share in 19 EU industries, over the period 2011–2019. Our results confirm that changes in firms' labor shares are related to these factors and that its decline has been accompanied by a reduction in capital accumulation, technological change and increasing markups. Further, we find heterogeneity among firms and show that the relationship between the labor share and the capital-output ratio is significantly nonlinear in many industries.}
}

@article{KHAN2023106306,
title = {Can FDI explain the growth disparity of the BRIC and the non-BRIC countries? Theoretical and empirical evidence from panel growth regressions},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
volume = {124},
pages = {106306},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106306},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001189},
author = {Seefat-E-Rabbi Khan and Dimitrios Asteriou and Claudia Jefferies},
keywords = {Growth disparities, BRICs, Foreign direct investments, Human capital formation},
abstract = {The aim of this paper is to explain the growth disparity between the four major emerging economies that are widely known with the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and the non-BRIC countries. There is ample evidence in the literature that FDI is growth enhancing, however there is little discussion whether FDI is the main driving factor of growth disparities between different countries. We utilise a balanced panel dataset for the BRICs and 50 other developing economies from 1980 to 2020. Our findings advocate that foreign direct investments, gross capital formation, human capital, and infrastructure are particularly important for economic growth. However, foreign direct investments, gross capital formation and human capital are observed to be more efficacious in BRICs. Also, the relative significance of foreign direct investments seems to be conditional on the presence of better-quality human capital and higher levels of domestic investments in BRICs, thus explaining the growth disparities.}
}

Update: “2023-06-02 01:16:35.764638”

@article{BAYONA2023106376,
title = {Information and optimal trading strategies with dark pools},
journal = {Economic Modelling},
pages = {106376},
year = {2023},
issn = {0264-9993},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106376},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001888},
author = {Anna Bayona and Ariadna Dumitrescu and Carolina Manzano},
keywords = {Dark liquidity, Limit order book, Adverse selection, Market performance},
abstract = {This paper examines the effects of the competition between asset trading venues with different levels of transparency: an opaque dark pool alongside a transparent exchange organized as a limit order book (two-venue market). In a model with asymmetric information, we compare traders’ strategies and market performance in the two-venue market with that of a single-venue market (trading only in the exchange). We show that price informativeness is lower in the two-venue market when informed traders migrate to the dark pool and uninformed investors remain in the exchange. We also find that when orders migrate to the dark pool in the first period, market liquidity is lower (higher) in the two-venue market for high (low) fundamental volatility stocks as traders migrating to the dark pool would have demanded (supplied) liquidity in the exchange. Finally, the expected profits of informed traders are never lower in the two-venue market, but this may not always be true for uninformed traders.}
}

Update: 2023-07-24 02:40:54.105122

@article{tian2023forecasting,
	title = {Forecasting crude oil prices in the COVID-19 era: Can machine learn better?},
	volume = {125},
	page = {106788},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106788},
	doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106788},
	journal = {Energy Economics},
	year = {2023},
	month = {9},
	author = {Guangning Tian and Yuchao Peng and Yuhao Meng}
}

@article{hsu2023technology,
	title = {Technology spillover, corporate investment, and stock returns},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.07.001},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.07.001},
	journal = {Journal of Empirical Finance},
	year = {2023},
	month = {7},
	author = {Yen-Ju Hsu and Yanzhi Wang}
}

@article{forni2023macroeconomic,
	title = {Macroeconomic uncertainty and vector autoregressions},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.07.002},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecosta.2023.07.002},
	journal = {Econometrics and Statistics},
	year = {2023},
	month = {7},
	author = {Mario Forni and Luca Gambetti and Luca Sala}
}

@article{aguero2021covid19,
	title = {COVID-19 and the rise of intimate partner violence},
	volume = {137},
	page = {105217},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105217},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105217},
	journal = {World Development},
	year = {2021},
	month = {1},
	author = {Jorge M. Agüero}
}

@article{fang2023bank,
	title = {Bank fintech, liquidity creation, and risk-taking: Evidence from China},
	page = {106445},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106445},
	doi = {10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106445},
	journal = {Economic Modelling},
	year = {2023},
	month = {7},
	author = {Yi Fang and Qi Wang and Fan Wang and Yang Zhao}
}

@article{shin2016a,
	title = {A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks},
	volume = {2016},
	issue = {40},
	page = {1-55},
	publisher = {Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.2016.040},
	doi = {10.17016/feds.2016.040},
	journal = {Finance and Economics Discussion Series},
	year = {2016},
	month = {5},
	author = {Minchul Shin and Molin Zhong}
}

@article{bargain2021poverty,
	title = {Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America},
	volume = {142},
	page = {105422},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105422},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105422},
	journal = {World Development},
	year = {2021},
	month = {6},
	author = {Olivier Bargain and Ulugbek Aminjonov}
}

@article{dang2021gender,
	title = {Gender inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Income, expenditure, savings, and job loss},
	volume = {140},
	page = {105296},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105296},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105296},
	journal = {World Development},
	year = {2021},
	month = {4},
	author = {Hai-Anh H. Dang and Cuong Viet Nguyen}
}

@article{bloem2021covid19,
	title = {COVID-19 and conflict},
	volume = {140},
	page = {105294},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105294},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105294},
	journal = {World Development},
	year = {2021},
	month = {4},
	author = {Jeffrey R. Bloem and Colette Salemi}
}

@article{paudel2021shortrun,
	title = {Short-run environmental effects of COVID-19: Evidence from forest fires},
	volume = {137},
	page = {105120},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105120},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105120},
	journal = {World Development},
	year = {2021},
	month = {1},
	author = {Jayash Paudel}
}

@article{oldekop2020covid19,
	title = {COVID-19 and the case for global development},
	volume = {134},
	page = {105044},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105044},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105044},
	journal = {World Development},
	year = {2020},
	month = {10},
	author = {Johan A. Oldekop and Rory Horner and David Hulme and Roshan Adhikari and Bina Agarwal and Matthew Alford and Oliver Bakewell and Nicola Banks and Stephanie Barrientos and Tanja Bastia and Anthony J. Bebbington and Upasak Das and Ralitza Dimova and Richard Duncombe and Charis Enns and David Fielding and Christopher Foster and Timothy Foster and Tomas Frederiksen and Ping Gao and Tom Gillespie and Richard Heeks and Sam Hickey and Martin Hess and Nicholas Jepson and Ambarish Karamchedu and Uma Kothari and Aarti Krishnan and Tom Lavers and Aminu Mamman and Diana Mitlin and Negar Monazam Tabrizi and Tanja R. Müller and Khalid Nadvi and Giovanni Pasquali and Rose Pritchard and Kate Pruce and Chris Rees and Jaco Renken and Antonio Savoia and Seth Schindler and Annika Surmeier and Gindo Tampubolon and Matthew Tyce and Vidhya Unnikrishnan and Yin-Fang Zhang}
}

@article{arestis2023does,
	title = {Does employment protection legislation affect employment and unemployment?},
	volume = {126},
	page = {106437},
	publisher = {Elsevier BV},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106437},
	doi = {10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106437},
	journal = {Economic Modelling},
	year = {2023},
	month = {9},
	author = {Philip Arestis and Jesus Ferreiro and Carmen Gomez}
}